Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 76

Buffalo Bills 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

(2:58) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to KC 33, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 28 for -5 yards (57-L.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.78 EP
69% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 76, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model