Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 4 at the 75

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(8:22) 2-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to BUF 25, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.17 EP

51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.69 EP
49% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model