4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
JAX Away

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
Sunday 2017-11-19 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US 🌧 Rain Spread -7.5 O/U 37.0

Win Probability

JAX
65.0%
CLE
35.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.180 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • DeShone Kizer (CLE): -0.237 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • JAX defense: -0.209 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph

Predicted Final Score

JAX 22
–
CLE 16
Projected margin: JAX by 6 Projected total: 38

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

JAX

Arrelious Benn WR Out Knee
Allen Hurns WR Out Ankle
Blair Brown LB Questionable Hamstring
Leonard Fournette RB Questionable Ankle
Patrick Omameh G Questionable Quadricep
Jermey Parnell T Questionable Knee

CLE

J.C. Tretter C Questionable Shoulder
Shon Coleman T Questionable Concussion
Jamar Taylor CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 19
–
CLE 7

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:59 TD JAX (6:59) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 89-M.Lewis for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – CLE 0
  • Q2 14:18 FG JAX (14:18) 4-J.Lambo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 10 – CLE 0
  • Q2 11:33 TD CLE (11:33) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass deep right to 29-D.Johnson for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 10 – CLE 6
  • Q4 03:35 FG JAX (3:35) 4-J.Lambo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman. JAX 13 – CLE 7
  • Q4 01:24 TD JAX (1:24) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer sacked at CLE 9 for -11 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue). FUMBLES (91-Y.Ngakoue), RECOVERED by JAX-50-T.Smith at CLE -2. TOUCHDOWN. JAX 19 – CLE 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 30%

    (13:03) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 35 yards to JAX 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 15 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:54) 3-B.Nortman punts 21 yards to CLE 45, Center-49-C.Holba, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (5:15) 4-B.Colquitt punts 60 yards to JAX 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 85-J.Mickens MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 18. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 25 for 7 yards (87-S.DeValve). CLE-10-S.Coates was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:40) 3-B.Nortman punts 45 yards to CLE 27, Center-49-C.Holba, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:57) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to JAX 24, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 33 for 9 yards (27-M.Dayes).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 88%

    (14:18) 4-J.Lambo 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:25) 3-B.Nortman punts 33 yards to CLE 40, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:31) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to JAX 7, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 19 for 12 yards (80-R.Louis).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 11 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 16%

    (5:55) 3-B.Nortman punts 46 yards to CLE 6, Center-49-C.Holba. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 16 for 10 yards (94-D.Smoot; 25-P.Thompson).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 11 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:54) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to JAX 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 42 for 10 yards (27-M.Dayes).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 21%

    (3:11) 5-B.Bortles up the middle to CLE 47 for 2 yards (65-L.Ogunjobi).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 84%

    (:34) 4-J.Lambo 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:36) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to CLE 27, Center-49-C.Holba. 22-J.Peppers to CLE 26 for -1 yards (25-P.Thompson).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (11:37) 4-B.Colquitt punts 34 yards to JAX 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 8 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:37) 3-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to CLE 41, Center-49-C.Holba. 22-J.Peppers MUFFS catch, touched at CLE 41, RECOVERED by JAX-26-J.Wilson at CLE 31.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 16 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 38%

    (6:01) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback. CLE-80-R.Louis was injured during the play.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 16 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 18%

    (14:29) 3-B.Nortman punts 37 yards to CLE 14, Center-49-C.Holba, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 77
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (12:11) 4-B.Colquitt punts 54 yards to JAX 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-80-R.Louis.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 9 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:40) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to CLE 33, Center-49-C.Holba. 22-J.Peppers MUFFS catch, touched at CLE 33, ball out of bounds at CLE 33.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 4 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 87%

    (3:35) 4-J.Lambo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 8 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (1:30) 3-B.Nortman punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Holba, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 5 at the 22 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.62 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 86%

    (:20) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass incomplete short left to 80-R.Louis.