Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 78

Cleveland Browns 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 4-B.Colquitt punts 60 yards to JAX 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 85-J.Mickens MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 18. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 25 for 7 yards (87-S.DeValve). CLE-10-S.Coates was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 78, worth -4.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model