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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 45

Cleveland Browns 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(13:03) (Punt formation) 4-B.Colquitt punts 35 yards to JAX 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.79 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 45, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model