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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 54

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(1:30) 3-B.Nortman punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-49-C.Holba, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +0.73 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -2.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model