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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 69

Cleveland Browns 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(2:57) 4-B.Colquitt punts 45 yards to JAX 24, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 33 for 9 yards (27-M.Dayes).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.22 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 69, worth -3.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 27, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model