Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

(9:31) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to JAX 7, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 19 for 12 yards (80-R.Louis).

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.83 EP
72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 60, worth -3.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model