Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 73

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

(10:25) 3-B.Nortman punts 33 yards to CLE 40, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.59 EP
62% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model