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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 16 at the 42

Cleveland Browns 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(6:01) 4-B.Colquitt punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback. CLE-80-R.Louis was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.47 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 42, worth -1.66 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.58 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT +0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth +0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model