Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 85

Cleveland Browns 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

(4:54) 4-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to JAX 32, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 85-J.Mickens to JAX 42 for 10 yards (27-M.Dayes).

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.02 EP
70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -4.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model