Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 76

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

(10:40) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to CLE 33, Center-49-C.Holba. 22-J.Peppers MUFFS catch, touched at CLE 33, ball out of bounds at CLE 33.

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.25 EP
63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 76, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model