Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 66

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

(8:54) 3-B.Nortman punts 21 yards to CLE 45, Center-49-C.Holba, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.48 EP
72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 66, worth -3.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model