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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 21

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 4-J.Lambo 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.40 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 31, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model