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New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
@
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Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
Sunday 2017-10-15 · 20:30 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.0 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

NYG
29.8%
DEN
70.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.177 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.114 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • DEN on 7 more days rest than NYG
  • Eli Manning (NYG): -0.069 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NYG 18
–
DEN 24
Projected margin: DEN by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

NYG

Jonathan Casillas LB Out Neck
Romeo Okwara DE Out Knee
Paul Perkins RB Out Ribs
Weston Richburg C Out Concussion
Sterling Shepard WR Out Ankle
Olivier Vernon DE Out Ankle
Landon Collins S Questionable Ankle

DEN

Cody Latimer WR Out Knee
Paxton Lynch QB Out right Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 23
–
DEN 10

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:58 FG NYG (6:58) 2-A.Rosas 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 3 – DEN 0
  • Q2 12:36 TD NYG (12:36) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 88-E.Engram for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 9 – DEN 0
  • Q2 04:25 FG DEN (4:25) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 10 – DEN 3
  • Q2 01:01 TD NYG (1:01) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short left intended for 16-B.Fowler INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Jenkins at DEN 43. 20-J.Jenkins for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 16 – DEN 3
  • Q3 08:13 FG NYG (8:13) 2-A.Rosas 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 20 – DEN 3
  • Q4 04:13 TD DEN (4:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short middle to 82-J.Heuerman for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 20 – DEN 9
  • Q4 00:31 FG NYG (:31) 2-A.Rosas 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. NYG 23 – DEN 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 6 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (14:04) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to NYG 24, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 84-E.Eagan.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

    (6:58) 2-A.Rosas 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (4:48) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to NYG 30, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 84-E.Eagan.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:21) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to DEN 28, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-23-M.Hunter. PENALTY on NYG-23-M.Hunter, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 28.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 93%

    (:57) 8-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 13 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (7:33) 9-B.Wing punts 58 yards to DEN 10, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 20 for 10 yards (37-R.Cockrell; 85-R.Ellison).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (4:25) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (2:48) 9-B.Wing punts 62 yards to DEN 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 22 for 7 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:50) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to DEN 10, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 84-I.McKenzie.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (11:04) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to NYG 17, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 84-E.Eagan to NYG 37 for 20 yards (32-A.Janovich).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 70%

    (8:13) 2-A.Rosas 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 65%

    (4:18) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (72-K.Wynn), Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 74%

    (2:15) 2-A.Rosas 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-A.Gotsis), Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 5 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 40%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 88-D.Thomas to NYG 39 for 6 yards (20-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (20-J.Jenkins), RECOVERED by NYG-24-E.Apple at NYG 39. 24-E.Apple to NYG 39 for no gain (77-B.Turner).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 11 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:57) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to DEN 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 84-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 15. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 15 for no gain (38-D.Deayon).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

    (8:30) 73-A.Barbre reported in as eligible. 22-C.Anderson right guard to NYG 1 for no gain (20-J.Jenkins). Denver challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 08:23.)

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:21) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to DEN 36, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 27-B.Langley to DEN 42 for 6 yards (58-C.Grant). Penalty on DEN-91-K.Edebali, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 11 at the 22 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 88%

    (:31) 2-A.Rosas 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.