4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 16

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(:57) 8-B.McManus 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.85 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.20 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 16, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model