Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 74

Denver Broncos 0 – New York Giants 0

(14:04) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to NYG 24, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 84-E.Eagan.

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +2.12 EP
59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 74, worth -4.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model