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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 82

New York Giants 20 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to DEN 36, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 27-B.Langley to DEN 42 for 6 yards (58-C.Grant). Penalty on DEN-91-K.Edebali, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.57 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 82, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 40, worth -1.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model