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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 12 at the 77

New York Giants 10 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 9-B.Wing punts 62 yards to DEN 15, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 22 for 7 yards (51-Z.DeOssie).

The Three Options

GO -2.73 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 77, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model