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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 68

New York Giants 10 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 9-B.Wing punts 58 yards to DEN 10, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 20 for 10 yards (37-R.Cockrell; 85-R.Ellison).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.00 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 26, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model