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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 56

New York Giants 17 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(12:50) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to DEN 10, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 84-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.80 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model