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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 22

New York Giants 20 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(:31) 2-A.Rosas 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +1.89 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model