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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 45

Denver Broncos 3 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 88-D.Thomas to NYG 39 for 6 yards (20-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (20-J.Jenkins), RECOVERED by NYG-24-E.Apple at NYG 39. 24-E.Apple to NYG 39 for no gain (77-B.Turner).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.29 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.74 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model