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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 31

New York Giants 20 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(2:15) 2-A.Rosas 49 yard field goal is BLOCKED (99-A.Gotsis), Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.20 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 31, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model