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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 1

Denver Broncos 3 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(8:30) 73-A.Barbre reported in as eligible. 22-C.Anderson right guard to NYG 1 for no gain (20-J.Jenkins). Denver challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 08:23.)

The Three Options

GO +3.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.65 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 1, worth +0.51 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model