Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 68

New York Giants 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 9-B.Wing punts 40 yards to DEN 28, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-23-M.Hunter. PENALTY on NYG-23-M.Hunter, Interference with Opportunity to Catch, 15 yards, enforced at DEN 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.79 EP
66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 68, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model