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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2017-10-15 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

GB
60.8%
MIN
39.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.142 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Aaron Rodgers (GB): -0.038 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • GB defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • Case Keenum (MIN): +0.007 EPA/dropback in prior starts (MIN starting Case Keenum in place of Sam Bradford)

Predicted Final Score

GB 26
–
MIN 19
Projected margin: GB by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

GB

Morgan Burnett S Out Hamstring
Joe Thomas LB Out Ankle
Ahmad Brooks LB Doubtful Back
Kevin King CB Doubtful Concussion
Ty Montgomery RB Questionable Ribs
David Bakhtiari T Questionable Hamstring
Bryan Bulaga T Questionable Ankle
Davon House CB Questionable Quadricep

MIN

Sam Bradford QB Out Knee
Stefon Diggs WR Out Groin
Nick Easton G Out Calf
Andrew Sendejo S Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 10
–
MIN 23

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 15:00 TD MIN (15:00) 7-C.Keenum pass short right to 21-J.McKinnon for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – MIN 6
  • Q2 10:47 TD GB (10:47) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – MIN 7
  • Q2 07:26 TD MIN (7:26) (Shotgun) 21-J.McKinnon left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the score ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. GB 7 – MIN 13
  • Q2 01:53 FG GB (1:53) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-T.Pepper, Holder-8-J.Vogel. GB 10 – MIN 14
  • Q3 09:39 FG MIN (9:39) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. GB 10 – MIN 17
  • Q4 15:00 FG MIN (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. GB 10 – MIN 20
  • Q4 10:52 FG MIN (10:52) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. GB 10 – MIN 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (13:45) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 45 yards to MIN 22, Center-59-T.Pepper, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 9 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 36%

    (10:10) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 31 yards to GB 17, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:17) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 40 yards to MIN 16, Center-59-T.Pepper, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 36%

    (1:49) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 30 yards to GB 18, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 11 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:55) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 26 yards to GB 42, Center-59-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (5:52) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 56 yards to MIN 23, Center-59-T.Pepper. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 18 for -5 yards (84-L.Kendricks).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (1:53) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-T.Pepper, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 10 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 92%

    (9:39) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:20) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 42 yards to MIN 17, Center-59-T.Pepper, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 93%

    (15:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 68%

    (10:52) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (9:17) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 54 yards to MIN 13, Center-59-T.Pepper, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 13 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:37) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 54 yards to GB 36, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-T.Davis to GB 44 for 8 yards (40-K.Brothers). PENALTY on GB-25-M.Evans, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 44.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (6:47) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass short left to 87-J.Nelson pushed ob at GB 44 for 4 yards (22-H.Smith).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 10 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 43%

    (5:37) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley sacked at GB 49 for -6 yards (97-E.Griffen).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 5 at the 44 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 45%

    (3:27) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 40 yards to GB 4, Center-47-K.McDermott, out of bounds.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 4 at the 63 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (1:18) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass short right to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at GB 42 for 5 yards (29-X.Rhodes).