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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 60

Green Bay Packers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 23

What Actually Happened

(6:47) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass short left to 87-J.Nelson pushed ob at GB 44 for 4 yards (22-H.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.20 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 60, worth -3.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 19, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model