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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 17

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +2.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.88 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP