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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 14 at the 79

Green Bay Packers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(5:52) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 56 yards to MIN 23, Center-59-T.Pepper. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 18 for -5 yards (84-L.Kendricks).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.27 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 79, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 36, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model