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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 48

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:49) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 30 yards to GB 18, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.27 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model