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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 13 at the 90

Minnesota Vikings 23 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:37) (Punt formation) 4-R.Quigley punts 54 yards to GB 36, Center-47-K.McDermott. 11-T.Davis to GB 44 for 8 yards (40-K.Brothers). PENALTY on GB-25-M.Evans, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 44.

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.98 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model