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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 10 – Minnesota Vikings 17

What Actually Happened

(5:20) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 42 yards to MIN 17, Center-59-T.Pepper, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.60 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 59, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model