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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 18

Minnesota Vikings 14 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(9:39) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.55 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model