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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 8

Green Bay Packers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 14

What Actually Happened

(1:53) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-T.Pepper, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.72 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 8, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -1.06 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model