Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 84

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

(12:55) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 26 yards to GB 42, Center-59-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.52 EP
63% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 84, worth -4.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model