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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 56

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(6:17) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 40 yards to MIN 16, Center-59-T.Pepper, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.34 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP