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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 35

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:52) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.29 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model