4th & Data
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OAK Away

Oakland Raiders

HC Jack Del Rio
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Vance Joseph
Sunday 2017-10-01 · 16:25 Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

OAK
35.7%
DEN
64.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.146 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.179 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Derek Carr (LV): +0.111 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

OAK 18
–
DEN 21
Projected margin: DEN by 3 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

OAK

Michael Crabtree WR Questionable Chest
Gareon Conley CB Questionable Shin
Keith McGill S Questionable Foot

DEN

Paxton Lynch QB Out right Shoulder
Cody Latimer WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 10
–
DEN 16

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:19 TD DEN (8:19) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 83-A.Derby for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 0 – DEN 6
  • Q1 01:13 FG DEN (1:13) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. OAK 0 – DEN 10
  • Q2 03:46 TD LV (3:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 16-J.Holton for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 6 – DEN 10
  • Q3 09:44 FG DEN (9:44) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. OAK 7 – DEN 13
  • Q3 05:12 FG DEN (5:12) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN-76-M.Garcia was injured during the play. His return is Probable. OAK 7 – DEN 16
  • Q4 05:27 FG LV (5:27) 2-G.Tavecchio 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King. OAK 10 – DEN 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (13:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to LV 35, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 30-J.Richard to LV 38 for 3 yards (16-B.Fowler).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (11:36) 7-M.King punts 43 yards to DEN 12, Center-59-J.Condo. 84-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at DEN 12.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:36) 7-M.King punts 56 yards to DEN 21, Center-59-J.Condo. 84-I.McKenzie pushed ob at LV 15 for 64 yards (41-E.Harris). Penalty on DEN-91-K.Edebali, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on DEN-20-J.Carter, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 21.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (1:13) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:03) 7-M.King punts 49 yards to DEN 5, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to LV 27, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 30-J.Richard to LV 32 for 5 yards (50-Z.Anderson).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 73%

    (9:05) 24-M.Lynch up the middle to DEN 31 for no gain (34-W.Parks).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (6:12) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to LV 1, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-31-J.Simmons.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 19 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (1:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to LV 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 82
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.13 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (:04) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep right to 89-A.Cooper.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:02) 7-M.King punts 58 yards to DEN 20, Center-59-J.Condo. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 27 for 7 yards (50-N.Morrow).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 92%

    (9:44) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 18 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (7:26) 7-M.King punts 51 yards to DEN 40, Center-59-J.Condo. 84-I.McKenzie pushed ob at LV 31 for 29 yards (7-M.King).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 19 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 19% p(FG) 78%

    (5:12) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN-76-M.Garcia was injured during the play. His return is Probable.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 11 at the 67
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:32) (Punt formation) 7-M.King right end to LV 30 for -3 yards (87-J.Taylor). PENALTY on LV-7-M.King, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LV 30.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 96%

    (14:14) 8-B.McManus 29 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:15) 7-M.King punts 49 yards to DEN 32, Center-59-J.Condo. 84-I.McKenzie MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 32. 84-I.McKenzie to DEN 34 for 2 yards (84-C.Patterson).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 6 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 40%

    (8:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to LV 7, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-42-C.Kreiter.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 10 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 90%

    (5:27) 2-G.Tavecchio 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 3 at the 79 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (4:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to LV 42, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.