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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 19 at the 60

Denver Broncos 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to LV 11, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 30-J.Richard.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.04 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -3.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model