Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 12 at the 77

Denver Broncos 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(13:16) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to LV 35, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 30-J.Richard to LV 38 for 3 yards (16-B.Fowler).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.27 EP
70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model