Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 80

Denver Broncos 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(12:14) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to LV 27, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 30-J.Richard to LV 32 for 5 yards (50-Z.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.29 EP
56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 80, worth -4.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model