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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 7 at the 54

Denver Broncos 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(6:12) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to LV 1, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-31-J.Simmons.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.96 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 54, worth -2.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model