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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 18

Denver Broncos 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 8-B.McManus 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.16 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model