Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 67

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(2:32) (Punt formation) 7-M.King right end to LV 30 for -3 yards (87-J.Taylor). PENALTY on LV-7-M.King, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at LV 30.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

What Happened

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.94 EP
72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.99 EP