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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 54

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(:03) 7-M.King punts 49 yards to DEN 5, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.73 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 54, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 16, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model