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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 20

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 2-G.Tavecchio 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.99 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 20, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.60 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model