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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 31

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(9:05) 24-M.Lynch up the middle to DEN 31 for no gain (34-W.Parks).

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.84 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 31, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
  • 73% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 41, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model