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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 10 at the 10

Denver Broncos 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 8-B.McManus 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.79 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.23 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 10, worth +0.28 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model