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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 3 at the 79

Denver Broncos 16 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to LV 42, Center-42-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.26 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 36, worth -1.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model